EVIDENCE FILE #001
How YES Traders Got Rugged
A documented recreation of the market — from the buy, to the sale, to the disputed resolution.
MARKET
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
POLYMARKET SCREENSHOT — JUN 2, 2026
ARCHIVED EVIDENCE
KEY EVIDENCE IN THIS SCREENSHOT:
1. YES is now 0.4¢ — down from 70¢ where traders bought in
2. Status shows "In Review" — Polymarket added undisclosed requirements
3. "Additional context" section added June 2 — after the deadline
4. The original written rule (bottom) contains NO disclosure requirement
THE SMOKING GUN
WRITTEN RULE (when traders bet)
"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No.'"
NO DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENT
ADDED AFTER DEADLINE (Jun 2)
"No information from MSTR, on-chain data, or consensus of credible reporting confirmed that MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin within the market's timeframe. Confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify."
NEW REQUIREMENT — NEVER AGREED TO
TIMELINE
YES price climbs to 70¢
On-chain data showed MicroStrategy was moving Bitcoin. YES traders were buying at 40–70¢ per share based on the written rule: "resolves YES if MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31."
MicroStrategy sells 32 BTC
MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin during this window — before the 11:59 PM ET May 31 deadline. The written rule made no requirement for public disclosure by the deadline.
Market deadline passes
The market closes. YES traders hold 49,000+ shares at 70¢ expecting to collect $1.00. The sale occurred. The rule was satisfied.
SEC Form 8-K discloses the sale
MicroStrategy's mandatory SEC filing publicly confirmed the Bitcoin sale — but the written market rule never required public disclosure before the deadline. Only that a sale occurred.
Polymarket adds "Additional Context"
Polymarket posted new language: "No information from MSTR, on-chain data, or consensus of credible reporting confirmed that MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin within the market's timeframe. Confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify." — This requirement did not exist when traders placed their bets.
Market resolves NO. YES crashes to 0.4¢
YES traders who paid 70¢ per share received nothing. Reported losses: $316,000+ and growing. Polymarket resolved the market using a disclosure requirement that was never in the original written rule.